Staff Profile

Dr. Kahraman is an atmospheric scientist specializing in mesoscale meteorology, with a background spanning weather forecasting, numerical modelling, severe convection research, and teaching. His graduate work focused on the climatology and predictability of severe convective storms and associated hazardous phenomena such as tornadoes and large hail.

He joined the Water Group at Newcastle University in 2019 to investigate future changes in convective weather hazards across Europe. He is primarily based at the Met Office Hadley Centre in Exeter (within Climate Processes and Projections team), where he uses high-resolution climate simulations alongside a range of observational datasets.

His recent research has revealed substantial increases in slow-moving, intense rainstorms—implying a greater potential for flash flooding— along with strong regional variability in lightning changes across Europe. His work also suggests a decrease in the frequency of European hailstorms, though with complex uncertainties linked to shifts in hail size distributions and the emergence of a new, warmer thunderstorm type.

Currently, Dr. Kahraman’s research focuses on responses of other convective weather hazards to anthropogenic climate change, and their multi-scale drivers. He also actively contributes to multidisciplinary research efforts, notably through the DARe Hub.

Kahraman is mainly interested in severe convective storms and their hazards (i.e. thunderstorms, tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds, lightning, and heavy rainfall leading to flash floods) with a particular focus on their drivers and future changes.

Selected lead-author papers:

1. Future changes in severe hail across Europe, including regional emergence of warm-type thunderstorms (2025) (Within the top 1% of all Nature Communications papers, based on Altmetric). See the press release and a blog piece from the university. Featured by Nature editors in Climate Change Impacts Highlights, widely covered in media.

2. Contrasting future lightning stories across Europe (2022) (Within the top 4% of all ERL papers, based on Altmetric). See the press release from the university. Widely covered in media, e.g. interview with Der Spiegel (in German).

3. Quasi-Stationary Intense Rainstorms Spread Across Europe Under Climate Change (2021) (Within the top 0.1 % of all GRL papers, based on Altmetric. 98 citations on Google Scholar as of Sep 2025). See the press release from the university. Widely covered around the world (~1000 news outlet), e.g. interview with The Guardian.

4. Severe Convective Storm Environments in Turkey (2017)

5. Severe Hail Climatology of Turkey (2016)

6. Tornado Climatology of Turkey (2014)

For full list of journal articles, see "Publications".

Taught Weather Analysis and Forecasting (Synoptic Meteorology 1 & 2), Mesoscale Meteorology, Severe Weather Forecasting, Satellite and Radar Meteorology, Atmospheric Radiation, and Aviation Meteorology for three years in Turkey, where he was an Assistant Professor of Meteorology before joining Newcastle University. 

Teaching contributions at Newcastle University include the graduate module CEG8526 (Hydrosystems Modelling and Management).

Currently co-supervising two PhD students working on precipitation extremes and severe weather affecting aviation.

Supervised one MSc student on precipitation extremes and several undergraduate students on various topics in meteorology and its applications.

Interested in supervising postgraduate students who are passionate about severe weather.

• Articles

  • Kahraman A, Kendon EJ, Fowler HJ, Short CJ. Future changes in severe hail across Europe, including regional emergence of warm-type thunderstorms. Nature Communications 2025, 16, 1-14.
  • Kahraman A, Kendon EJ, Fowler HJ. Climatology of severe hail potential in Europe based on a convection-permitting simulation. Climate Dynamics 2024, 62, 6625-6642.
  • Wells HM, Hillier J, Garry FK, Dunstone N, Clark MR, Kahraman A, Chen H. Climatology and convective mode of severe hail in the United Kingdom. Atmospheric Research 2024, 309, 107569.
  • Chan SC, Kendon EJ, Fowler HJ, Kahraman A, Crook C, Ban N, Prein AF. Large-scale dynamics moderate impact-relevant changes to organised convective storms. Communications Earth & Environment 2023, 4, 8.
  • Lewis H, Bowyer J, Broad AL, Chamberlain-Clay A, Jones C, Chan S, Kahraman A, Morcrette C. Using machine learning to find cloud-base height: a didactic challenge. Weather 2022, 77(11), 391-395.
  • Papagiannaki K, Petrucci O, Diakakis M, Kotroni V, Aceto L, Bianchi C, Brazdil R, Gelabert MG, Inbar M, Kahraman A, Kilic O, Krahn A, Kreibich H, Llasat MC, Llasat-Botija M, MacDonald N, deBrito MM, Mercuri M, Pereira SS, Rehor J, Geli JR, Salvati P, Vinet F, Zezere JL. Developing a large-scale dataset of flood fatalities for territories in the Euro-Mediterranean region, FFEM-DB. Scientific Data 2022, 9, 166.
  • Kahraman A, Kendon EJ, Fowler HJ, Wilkinson JM. Contrasting future lightning stories across Europe. Environmental Research Letters 2022, 17(11), 114023.
  • Fowler HJ, Ali H, Allan RP, Ban N, Barbero R, Berg P, Blenkinsop S, Cabi NS, Chan S, Dale M, Dunn RJH, Ekstrom M, Evans JP, Fosser G, Golding B, Guerreiro SB, Hegerl GC, Kahraman A, Kendon EJ, Lenderink G, Lewis E, Li X, O'Gorman PA, Orr HG, Peat KL, Prein AF, Pritchard D, Schar C, Sharma A, Stott PA, Villalobos-Herrera R, Villarini G, Wasko C, Wehner MF, Westra S, Whitford A. Towards advancing scientific knowledge of climate change impacts on short-duration rainfall extremes. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 2021, 379(2195), 20190542.
  • Kahraman A. Synoptic climatology of supercell‐type tornado and very large hail days in Turkey. Weather 2021, 76(4), 129-134.
  • Kahraman A, Kendon EJ, Chan S, Fowler HJ. Quasi-stationary intense rainstorms spread across Europe under climate change. Geophysical Research Letters 2021, 48(13), e2020GL092361.
  • Kahraman A, Ural D, Önol B. Future Changes in Euro-Mediterranean Daytime Severe Thunderstorm Environments Based on an RCP8.5 Med-CORDEX Simulation. Atmosphere 2020, 11(8), 1-18.
  • Vinet F, Bigot V, Petrucci O, Papagiannaki K, Llasat C, Kotroni V, Boissier L, Aceto L, Grimalt M, Llasat-Botija M, Pasqua AA, Rosselo J, Kiliç O, Kahraman A, Tramblay Y. Mapping Flood-Related Mortality in the Mediterranean Basin. Results from the MEFF v2.0 DB. Water 2019, 11(10), 1-27.
  • Petrucci O, Aceto L, Bianchi C, Bigot V, Brazdil R, Pereira SS, Kahraman A, Kiliç O, Kotroni V, Llasat MC, Llasat-Botija M, Papagiannaki K, Pasqua A, Rehor J, Geli JR, Salvati P, Vinet F, Zezere JL. Flood fatalities in Europe, 1980-2018: Variability, Features and Lessons to Learn. Water 2019, 11(8), 1-28.
  • Incecik S, Sakarya S, Tilev-Tanriover S, Kahraman A, Aksoy B, Caliskan E, Topcu S, Kahya C, Odman MT. Evaluation of WRF Parameterizations for Global Horizontal Irradiation Forecasts: A Study for Turkey. Atmosfera 2019, 32(2), 143-158.
  • Kahraman A, Kadioglu M, Markowski PM. Severe convective storm environments in Turkey. Monthly Weather Review 2017, 145(12), 4711-4725.
  • Kahraman A, Tilev-Tanriover S, Kadioglu M, Schultz DM, Markowski PM. Severe hail climatology of Turkey. Monthly Weather Review 2016, 144(1), 337-346.
  • Tilev-Tanriover S, Kahraman A. Saharan dust transport by Mediterranean cyclones causing mud rain in Istanbul. Weather 2015, 70(5), 145-150.
  • Tilev-Tanriover S, Kahraman A, Kadioglu M, Schultz DM. Lightning fatalities and injuries in Turkey. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 2015, 15(8), 1881-1888.
  • Kahraman A, Markowski PM. Tornado climatology of Turkey. Monthly Weather Review 2014, 142(6), 2345-2352.
  • Tilev-Tanriover S, Kahraman A. Impact of Turkish ground-based GPS-PW data assimilation on regional forecast: 8-9 March 2011 heavy snow case. Atmospheric Science Letters 2014, 15(3), 159-165.

• Book Chapters

  • Barutcu B, Tilev-Tanriover S, Sakarya S, Incecik S, Sayinta FM, Caliskan E, Kahraman A, Aksoy B, Kahya C, Topcu S. Improving WRF GHI Forecasts with Model Output Statistics. In: Ibrahim Dincer, C. Ozgur Colpan, Onder Kizilkan, M. Akif Ezan, ed. Progress in Clean Energy. Switzerland: Springer, Cham, 2015, pp.291-299.
  • Tilev-Tanriover S, Kahraman A, Incecik S, Deniz A, Toros H, Celebi HM, Ozturk A, Sezen I. Meteorological Modeling of the PM10 Episode in the Creek Valley of Golden Horn Harbour, Istanbul Under Very Stable Conditions for November 6–9, 2010 Episode. In: Douw G. Steyn, Peter J.H. Builtjes, Renske M.A. Timmermans, ed. Air Pollution Modeling and its Application. Dordrecht: Springer Dordrecht, 2014, pp.685-692.

• Research Datasets/Databases

  • Petrucci O, Aceto L, Bianchi C, Brazdil R, Diakakis M, Inbar M, Kahraman A, Kilic O, Krahn A, Kreibich H, Kotroni V, de Brito MM, Llasat MC, Llasat-Botija M, Mercuri M, Papagiannaki K, Pereira S, Rehor J, Rossello-Geli J, Salvati P, Vinet F, Zezere JL. FFEM-DB “Database of Flood Fatalities from the Euro-Mediterranean region”. 2022. https://doi.org/10.4121/14754999: 4TU.ResearchData, 906539 bytes.
  • Petrucci A, Aceto LA, Bianchi C, Bigot V, Brazdil R, Pereira S, Inbar M, Kahraman A, Kilic O, Kotroni V, Llasat MC, Llasat-Botija M, Mercuri M, Papagiannaki K, Pasqua AA, Rehor J, Rossello-Geli J, Salvati P, Vinet F, Zezere JL. EUropean Flood Fatalities (EUFF) database 1980-2018. 2019. 4TU.Centre for Research Data, 139kb.